A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
